If so, you can take good care of your stock assets, because the acceleration of real estate can't be sustained with the acceleration of debt conversion, especially the change in the statistical caliber of social finance is slowly repairing everyone's confidence. The next step is cpi re-transmission, and then the whole economic model is revitalized, which is the most important pawn at the moment, and liquidity has fallen. In the follow-up, whether it is the development of traditional infrastructure, the development of new infrastructure, the commercialization of land transfer, and the re-emergence of assets to make money, this hurdle has passed, and everyone must have this confidence.Don't think that shipping is a bad word. If you don't speed up the shipment, you can't follow the trend without pulling the board. You have worked hard for one year, waiting for the event-driven east wind, and the fire will burn quickly. This is the enjoyment of "tulip bubble"Concentrate on doing big things while deploying the market. When the normal operation of the economy is in the inflation range, the market has higher strength and efficiency in resource allocation, then the market has the final say. When it is in the shrinking range, the market deployment fails, such as our current long-term debt, so it is driven by policies. We must know that next year is the last year of the 14 th Five-Year Plan to solve the debt. We must know the buyout reverse repurchase operation of 800 billion yuan some time ago, unless
Then the difference of this bull market is that it is no longer resonated by external factors, or internal and external factors. This round of our excess stock savings has already seen its power after 924, which is only slightly loose.This time, the difference is only 0.007. Do you still remember that the global capital market plummeted and melted on August 5? Then in September, the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 50bp urgently. After the data was released, the probability of the Fed's interest rate cut was 90.5%. After the meeting, the most eagle representative said that we should not look at this data, but the inflation rate. Then next Wednesday, the US cpi is also very important, so beware of short-term risks, especially the risk control at the index level.First, the economic transformation. Let's talk about the debt. In the past, our big bull markets all relied on the mapping of overseas currency issuance. As we said before, whether it was 05 or 15, it was essentially a small basin with a lot of water. The currency overflow caused by the rapid increase of foreign exchange reserves flooded into the stock market, and a crazy bull came quickly, including our institutional blue-chip bull in 1718. In essence, it was the rapid growth of foreign exchange reserves or the superposition of high reserves exceeding m2. Here is a message that everyone needs to pay attention to.
We used to tell you that we should look at the expectation of news stimulus together with exchange rate, national debt and bulk. From our point of view, the biggest problem in the A-share market lies in the mood. Compared with other markets, professional investors will be relatively calm. Let's take a look at Friday's composition about the biggest interest rate cut in ten years, right? Let's look at the exchange rate, national debt and commodities, which are definitely devalued. When the A-share market moves, it is accelerating the appreciation range. Look at 30 bonds and 10 bonds. Theoretically, the interest rate is reduced, and the interest rate is also reversed. Let's look at commodities. The sharp differences fell below 0.5 of Fibonacci's retracement after the morning closing, and even hit a new low at night. Several representative threads and so on can almost be said to have gone down after a while, that is, the attitude of big money is an emotion. On the other hand, A shares resisted all day, so you said that the national team did not intervene?It is necessary to adjust the interest rate of 10/30 bonds in the future. The yield of the anchor 10-year government bonds priced by capital assets fell below 2%. Remember the spread between stocks and bonds we talked about? This is a good phenomenon. Before, A shares were not anchored by this anchor, which also confirmed that the initial intention of this round of "bull market" was the re-pricing of RMB assets. This 2% is equivalent to a calm lake. Real estate, stocks and other assets are all canoes above, but you can see that the stock market is declining, so there is bound to be a factor accelerating. Is real estate?It's amazing. Remember the picture we drew in the post last week? I didn't wipe it here, so I'll show it to you. Last week, we talked about stepping back to confirm the trend intensity, and touched the horizontal center near 3375 to get a grade 4b. In fact, from our point of view, Thursday was already a short-selling structure with long-term exhaustion. As a result, a positive line was directly repaired, and if it was wrong, it was beaten to attention. You said that the national team didn't know the technology, but he knew the long-short power too well. Let's take a look at the current market in combination with the macro.